Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World
Author: Carl T Bergstrom and Jevin West
Publisher: Random House
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Cover Description
Bullshit isn't what it used to be. Now, two science professors give us the tools to dismantle misinformation and think clearly in a world of fake news and bad data.
It's increasingly difficult to know what's true. Misinformation, disinformation, and fake news abound. Our media environment has become hyperpartisan. Science is conducted by press release. Startup culture elevates bullshit to high art. We are fairly well equipped to spot the sort of old-school bullshit that is based in fancy rhetoric and weasel words, but most of us don't feel qualified to challenge the avalanche of new-school bullshit presented in the language of math, science, or statistics. In Calling Bullshit, Professors Carl Bergstrom and Jevin West give us a set of powerful tools to cut through the most intimidating data.
You don't need a lot of technical expertise to call out problems with data. Are the numbers or results too good or too dramatic to be true? Is the claim comparing like with like? Is it confirming your personal bias? Drawing on a deep well of expertise in statistics and computational biology, Bergstrom and West exuberantly unpack examples of selection bias and muddled data visualization, distinguish between correlation and causation, and examine the susceptibility of science to modern bullshit.
We have always needed people who call bullshit when necessary, whether within a circle of friends, a community of scholars, or the citizenry of a nation. Now that bullshit has evolved, we need to relearn the art of skepticism.
TL;DR Review
Calling Bullshit is a slightly mathy but surprisingly useful book about how to think critically about the information and research we read about in the news.
For you if: You’ve taken an intro to statistics class and want to learn how data and studies can be misleading.
Full Review
I was pleasantly surprised by Calling Bullshit. A lot of big idea nonfiction books should really just be a TED Talk, but I didn’t feel that way about this one. And it had some good jokes, too!
The mission of the authors of Calling Bullshit is to give people the knowledge and tools to prevent themselves from being duped too often by misleading (either deliberately or not) information, especially in statistics and scientific studies. It starts out with “correlation vs causation” and issues with data samples, which are probably the most often recognized types of BS, but then it goes beyond that into things like misleading practices in data visualization, the true limitations of determining statistical significance in scientific studies, and even biases and selection bias in scientific journal publications.
This book is by two scientists, two professors. And so expect that going in — their arguments are rooted in math and statistics. I think if you’ve taken an intro to statistics class, you’ll be able to follow along no problem. Of course, if you have a mathy mind, that will help, but I don’t think it’s totally necessary. Just be ready for it.
While I did know some of what they covered before (mostly the first few chapters, which makes sense — they had to make sure everyone was on the same page before building on those concepts — I learned quite a bit in the later chapters. And I took statistics three times: in high school, during undergrad, and at business school. None of them were particularly high-level stats classes, but still. For example, I had never learned about the “prosecutor’s dilemma,” which has huge implications! And I really appreciated the chapter on journal publications and why we can’t necessarily take studies as fact.
I finished this book feeling empowered and even more eager to start spotting bullshit out in the wild.